Key Points
- Bitcoin faces a potential 14% correction toward $90,765 due to a rising wedge breakdown and profit-taking pressure.
- A Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern near $104,500 and an overbought RSI on the weekly chart signal broader bearish reversal risks.
- Bitcoin’s NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) at 0.62 highlights increasing unrealized profits, raising the likelihood of profit-taking-led corrections.
On December 17, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record high near $108,500 before declining by 4.80% to $103,175, driven by trader profit-taking after its 140% year-to-date gains.
Smaller corrections don’t necessarily end Bitcoin’s bull cycle. The price may continue declining until reaching accumulation zones, potentially dropping below $100,000 and testing the $90,000–$100,000 range. Technical indicators suggest this bearish scenario is plausible.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Rising Wedge Breakdown Targets $90,000
Bitcoin’s price forms a rising wedge pattern, a bearish reversal signal. A breakdown below the wedge’s lower trendline could trigger a 14% drop to $90,765, with support levels at:
- 50-day EMA: $91,820
- 200-day EMA: $73,500 (if selling intensifies).
The RSI at 64 indicates overbought conditions, potentially amplifying selling pressure.
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Weekly Chart: Gravestone Doji Signals Correction
A Gravestone Doji candlestick near $104,488 suggests a bearish reversal. Key levels to watch:
- Support: $102,000 (1.618 Fibonacci extension)
Downside Targets:
- 20-day EMA: $80,000
- 50-week EMA: $66,901.
The weekly RSI at 78.83 (overbought) further supports correction risks.
Bitcoin NUPL Warns of Profit-Taking Risks
Bitcoin’s NUPL (0.62) reflects high unrealized profits. Historically, NUPL above 0.6–0.7 precedes euphoria phases and corrections (e.g., 2013, 2017, 2021). A drop below $100,000 may accelerate profit-taking.
Bitcoin NUPL vs. Price Chart (Source: CryptoQuant)
FAQ
1. What triggers Bitcoin’s potential drop below $100,000?
Profit-taking after record highs, technical patterns (rising wedge, Gravestone Doji), and overbought RSI levels contribute to correction risks.
2. How low could Bitcoin price fall?
A breakdown could push BTC to $90,765** (rising wedge target), with deeper corrections toward **$80,000 or $66,901 in extreme scenarios.
3. Is Bitcoin’s bull cycle over?
Not necessarily. Corrections are common in bull markets; accumulation at lower support levels may fuel the next rally.
4. What is NUPL, and why does it matter?
NUPL measures unrealized profits relative to market cap. Values above 0.6 signal excessive optimism, often preceding corrections.
5. Should I sell my Bitcoin now?
Evaluate your risk tolerance. Technical indicators suggest short-term downside, but long-term holders may wait for rebound signals.
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Final Notes:
- Monitor key support levels ($90,000–$100,000) and RSI trends.
- NUPL and candlestick patterns provide critical reversal signals.
- Always diversify investments to mitigate volatility risks.