Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of a trend reversal after weeks of downward movement, according to a recent CryptoQuant analysis. The cryptocurrency recently surged past $100,000 for the first time since February 3, fueling optimism among investors and analysts.
Key Indicators Point to Bullish Momentum
The CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator, which tracks long-term and short-term market sentiment, has begun flashing bullish signals. This on-chain tool compares price momentum and investor behavior trends using two key components:
- 30-day moving average (MA)
- 365-day moving average (MA)
Analyst Burak Kemeci noted:
"With Bitcoin surging back above $100K, the indicator has started flashing bullish signals again – for the first time in weeks. Although the signal is still weak (coefficient: 0.029), the mere appearance of a positive shift is encouraging."
Macroeconomic Factors Supporting BTC's Rise
Recent developments in global liquidity may further bolster Bitcoin's upward trajectory. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, highlighted the correlation between BTC's price and the global M2 money supply (adjusted with a 12-week lag). Since early 2025, there has been a steep increase in global liquidity, historically a precursor to BTC price rallies.
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Cautionary Notes Amid the Rally
While the outlook appears positive, analysts warn of potential headwinds:
- Aggressive profit-taking by investors suggests a possible local top.
- BTC’s Demand Momentum remains in negative territory, typical during late-cycle distribution phases.
However, the Stochastic RSI indicates brewing bullish momentum, with BTC trading at $103,444 at press time (up 4% in 24 hours).
FAQ: Bitcoin Market Cycle Insights
1. What does the Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator measure?
It analyzes price momentum and investor behavior using 30-day and 365-day moving averages to identify shifts between bull and bear markets.
2. Why is the M2 money supply relevant to Bitcoin?
Expanding global liquidity (M2) often correlates with increased capital inflow into risk assets like BTC, typically with a 12-week lag.
3. What are the risks despite bullish signals?
Profit-taking and stagnant demand momentum could signal short-term volatility before a sustained uptrend.
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