Bitcoin buyers from the previous bull cycle are more steadfast than ever, data shows, even after BTC's price surged 165% year-to-date in 2023.
Bitcoin (BTC) has gained a new generation of hodlers over the past three years, as stubborn investors who acquired their BTC during the 2021 bull cycle refuse to sell their holdings.
Data from the popular HODL Waves metric reveals that the vast majority of investors who bought Bitcoin in late 2020 are still holding their coins.
BTC Price Must Rise "Much Higher" for Hodlers to Sell
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) remain unwilling to reduce their exposure to the asset, despite 2023's strong rally.
HODL Waves—a metric grouping BTC's circulating supply by time since each coin last moved—shows one specific age band has grown significantly this year.
Since the bear market bottomed in late 2022, coins dormant for 2–3 years have sharply increased their share of the circulating supply. Last December, the group held ~8% of the supply; now, it exceeds 15%.
In other words, those who bought BTC between December 2020 and December 2021 resisted the urge to mass-realize profits.
Excerpt from Bitcoin's realized HODL Waves chart. Source: Glassnode
Realized cap HODL Waves—which show the relative value-weighted entities by coin dormancy—also reveal greater gains for 2–3-year-old coin holders.
Yet with BTC/USD up 165% year-to-date (per Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView), hodlers' resilience is no small feat.
Weekly BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView
Philip Swift, creator of stats resource Look Into Bitcoin (hosting HODL Waves), often highlights LTHs' resilience as experienced investors grow more attached to positions over time.
"Bitcoin's 1-year HODL Wave has barely moved so far," he noted last month on X (formerly Twitter), commenting on another hodler group's behavior.
"Long-term Bitcoiners won't sell their coins until we go MUCH higher."
Bitcoin HODL Waves chart. Source: Look Into Bitcoin
Speculators Keep One Foot Out
The group opposing LTHs—short-term holders (STHs) or speculators—has increased profit-taking recently.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin surpassing $40,000 triggered [rapid STH response](https://www.okx.com/join/BLOCKSTAR), with $4.5B BTC sold within days.
This barely impacted spot markets, as LTHs already controlled more supply than ever.
Per Glassnode, LTHs held 14.92M BTC on Dec. 6—slightly below Nov. 28's all-time high of 14.95M (76.3% of supply).
Bitcoin long-term holder supply ownership chart. Source: Glassnode
FAQ Section
Why are HODL Waves important for Bitcoin investors?
HODL Waves track supply dormancy, revealing investor behavior trends and potential price inflection points when long-term holders start selling.
How do 2–3-year-old coins impact Bitcoin’s price?
Coins dormant for 2–3 years indicate strong conviction; their growing share suggests reduced selling pressure and potential future scarcity.
What triggers short-term holders to sell Bitcoin?
STHs often sell during rapid price surges (e.g., +165% YTD) to realize profits, creating temporary volatility but minimal long-term impact.
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